The long-run case
Markets reward patience. Through the dot-com collapse, the Global Financial Crisis, the pandemic and the 2022 rate shock, the NASDAQ-100 and S&P 500 compounded at roughly 12.1% and 8.7% a year over the past 30 years.
The structural gap
A 60/40 allocation is built for the middle of the distribution, where roughly two-thirds of outcomes fall. The losses that destroy wealth sit in the left tail — black-swan events that are improbable, not impossible — and that tail is growing longer and fatter.
Our response
QIS does not try to predict black swans. It identifies the prevailing regime, then pre-positions distinct engines against known categories of shock — so survival never depends on a single forecast.
When stocks and bonds fall together
Each recent shock exposed the same weakness: static risk controls and fixed weights offered little protection when equities and bonds sold off at the same time and liquidity evaporated.
Feb 2022
Russia–Ukraine war
An energy shock and the fastest tightening cycle in decades drove equities and government bonds lower together through 2022.
Max drawdown in period
−24%
−14%
Apr 2025
US tariff shock
Sweeping tariff announcements triggered one of the sharpest equity drawdowns since 2020, while Treasuries failed to cushion the fall.
Max drawdown in period
−15%
−10%
2026
Middle East conflict
Escalation involving Iran pushed oil and bond yields higher as equities fell — once again leaving 60/40 portfolios with nowhere to hide.
Max drawdown in period
−9%
−3%
Source: Bloomberg. Daily closing prices, rebased to the start of each period. Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline within the period shown. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Six engines, one mandate
| Engine | Role within the strategy |
|---|---|
| Grid Trading | Primary return engine. Systematically accumulates on weakness and takes profit into strength in range-bound, mean-reverting markets. |
| Synthetic Futures Short | Dynamic hedge leg. Offsets the grid during trending declines — the counterweight in months when the grid does not work. |
| Synthetic Long Straddle | Two-sided long-gamma exposure that benefits from large moves in either direction, with gains locked in through gamma scalping. |
| Long Volatility | Short-term long-volatility positions for abrupt, event-driven volatility expansion. |
| Naked Strangle | Short-term, dynamically managed sale of out-of-the-money calls and puts to harvest volatility premium when implied volatility is rich. |
| Iron Condor | Defined-risk premium income in low-volatility, range-bound conditions. |
How the engines work together
Grid Trading generates most of the return and performs best when markets move sideways. When markets trend sharply in one direction, the Synthetic Futures Short is designed to offset its losses. The four options engines each target a different volatility environment — calm or turbulent, gradual or sudden. Not every engine will profit every month; the aim is for the combination to hold up in any market.
Next strategy
Global Alpha Total Return Strategy (TRS) →
Key risk considerations
- Target returns and drawdown objectives may not be achieved. The value of investments can fall as well as rise, and investors may lose some or all of their capital.
- Derivative and options strategies involve leverage, liquidity and counterparty risk, and losses may be magnified in volatile markets.
- Quantitative models rely on assumptions and historical relationships that may not hold in future market conditions.
- Actively Managed Certificates are subject to the credit risk of the issuer.
- Investments in foreign markets are subject to currency, political, regulatory and liquidity risks.
- Allocations are managed dynamically and may differ from those described on this page.
Important Information
This page is prepared by Sino Suisse Capital Pte. Ltd. (“SSCPL”), a holder of a Capital Markets Services licence regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. It is intended for institutional investors and accredited investors only, as defined under the Securities and Futures Act 2001 of Singapore, and is not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where its distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. It is provided for general information only, does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person, and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer, solicitation or invitation to buy or sell any product or service. Targets and objectives are not guarantees and actual results may differ materially. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information obtained from third parties has not been independently verified. SSCPL makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. This page has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.